The 2015 avg. cost for your typical military Chinese type 56 SKS was ~$360. They are by far the most popular SKS changing hands on Gunbroker with an impressive 955 bought and sold over the ten months that I tracked. Extrapolated out over 12 months, we would have ~1150 guns bought and sold over all of 2015. It's interesting to note, that of the 955 guns tracked, they broke down like this (listed for most numerous to least):
- 408 triangle arsenal (227 of those being /26\)
- 385 unknown (due to poor presentation, lack of clarity on the listing)
- 52 rectangle arsenal
- 35 late build guns (88 through 94 prefix)
- 23 ghost guns
- 18 DP marked guns
- 15 oval arsenals
- 5 M21s (both M21 0296 and 416 M21)
- 2 DB marked guns
- 2 diamond arsenals.
It's pretty clear from this data that certain guns or sets of guns are 'rarer' than others.. This is the first time we can actually quantify this though. It appears that you are nine times more likely to find a DP gun than you are a DB marked one, yet it's 25x more likely that you'd encounter a rectangle arsenal marked gun than a DB.
(http://i1352.photobucket.com/albums/q647/jelucer/Auction_images/2015/2015_Chinese_final.jpg~original)
The chart shows a slightly negative trendline for the avg. price, with a reduction of ~-$1.40 per month throughout the year. I broke out the "As-Issued" avg. as well, and it pretty much tracks the all gun avg. as well, generally running $40 to $50 higher.
(http://i1352.photobucket.com/albums/q647/jelucer/Auction_images/2015/2015_Chinese_final_chart.jpg~original)
I don't know wtf is up with photobucket. The site was down for a good portion of yesterday and when it finally came back up, it took me 20 attempts to successfully upload these two images. Now I see that the images aren't being served well (I see two black boxes where the images should be in this post. Hopefully PB gets their act together, if not I'll switch over to imagur or picassa or something and just dump PB altogether.
The Photos are showing up for me Joe. thumb1 Looks good thank you for doing all of these.
Interesting data... Wth happened in Oct and Nov with the highs? I guess there simply wasn't anything of higher value listed for two months?
Quote from: Loose}{Cannon on January 22, 2016, 07:44:50 AM
Interesting data... Wth happened in Oct and Nov with the highs? I guess there simply wasn't anything of higher value listed for two months?
The high price is typically a high priced bubba, it does not necessarily have to be a really nice as-issued gun. I'm still in shock at that December "bringback" that brought 9 Benjamins. Utterly unbelievable w/o the papers.
Top listing in Oct:
Item Link Description # Bids Final Price Chinese Factory Arsenal Condtion Current Condition RM's Notes
516919392 (http://www.gunbroker.com/Auction/ViewItem.aspx?Item=516919392) Norinco SKS w/ SG Works Bullpup Stock 1 $599.99 Uncertain Bubba Uncertain
Nov (same damn gun. It sold in Oct but the guy relisted it after the Oct report was done):
Item Link Description # Bids Final Price Chinese Factory Arsenal Condition Current Condition
524260167 (http://www.gunbroker.com/Auction/ViewItem.aspx?Item=524260167) Norinco SKS w/ SG Works Bullpup Stock 1 $599.99 Uncertain Bubba Uncertain
Dec:
Item Link Description # Bids Final Price Chinese Factory Arsenal Condtion Current Condition RM's Notes
529071688 (http://www.gunbroker.com/Auction/ViewItem.aspx?Item=529071688) Chinese SKS Matching Vet Purchase NON Import 1967 Vietnam Bring Back Norinco Polytech Type 56 Rifle 39 $880.00 /26\ As-Issued Fair Classic line here: "Sling tab rotted but is included & adds to the authenticity of the rifle. Vet lost the papers over time but you can get a pretty good idea of what this is by the look." I don't think that warrants a three-fold increase in price over a comparable gun w/o the 'story', sorry I just don't.
I am wondering whether to be thrilled that my DB is rare or scared of it because of the build quality. I haven't run a lot through her, and she hasn't blown up on me yet....I might just keep it that way, it isn't like I don't have plenty more to shoot....
You guys got me a little nervous about that missing hardened lug.
Great work again Joe, it is really interesting to see how the minutia adds up to a bigger picture over so many listings. I just hope to run into 9 DPs before finding my next DB. The 385 unknowns are troublesome, yet I think you got a pretty good grasp on averages anyway...even without solid data on those, that is a LOT of information. Thank you for your efforts! thumb1
Quote from: Justin Hell on January 22, 2016, 05:10:26 PM
The 385 unknowns are troublesome, yet I think you got a pretty good grasp on averages anyway...even without solid data on those, that is a LOT of information. Thank you for your efforts! thumb1
Yeah, they were bugging me yesterday too, I had no idea there would be that many. One thing I'm planning on doing in the future is when there is an obvious triangle stamp, but the # inside isn't clear enough to be known, it'll go into a /?\ category for the arsenal stamp. The spreadsheet will auto recognize that as a triangle arsenal (even if the exact triangle arsenal isn't known) and it will be reflected in the next year end data properly. The same can be said for (?), [?], and <?> guns. Should help to reduce the total unknown guns a bit.
I was impressed to see that a full 23.7% were /26\ and 42.7% were triangle arsenals of some kind. I bet next year those numbers go up tremendously if I start tracking the /?\s. thumb1